Stockstradamus AKA Stocky’s Blog

Todays Sunday Globe front page above the fold screaming headline:

53% in poll back Patrick casinos plan

Very first sentence in the story by Andea Estes:

A majority of Massachusetts residents supports Governor Deval Patrick’s proposal to license resort-style casinos across the state, …

Slight problem with that. They don’t.

To the Globes credit, they include the entire poll details in a PDF. I initially went there to find the margin of error for the poll. The 4.4% margin of error was not metioned in the story but was footnoted in an accompanying graphic. So it’s within the margin of error that the “majority of residents support Patrick’s plan”? That doesn’t sound like it deserves a screaming page 1 headline to me. But that’s not the real problem with this.

I went to the actual poll and looked for the question: Do you support Gov. Patrick’s Casino plan?

That question WAS NEVER ASKED!!!!!!!!!!

You have to go to page 28 of the PDF doc to find the question they used to come to their headline conclusion. Here it is:

“I’d like to turn to the subject of gambling in Massachusetts. Governor Patrick has recently proposed legal casino gambling, including slot machines, at three locations in Massachusetts. Supporters argue that this will bring in hundreds of millions of dollars in revenues to the State of Massachusetts while opponents argue that casinos will increase social problems from compulsive gambling. What about you … do you favor or oppose legalizing casino gambling in Massachusetts?” “Is that strongly or just somewhat?”

After a lengthy preamble that starts with Patricks plan for 3 casinos across the state and ends who knows where since all we get is the dot dot dot treatment we finally get to the question they asked:

Do you favor or oppose legalizing casino gambling in Massachusetts?

That was the friggin question. Not “Do you agree with Patrick’s plan?”

Christ almighty. Is this so fucking hard to understand? If it is, the very next question in the poll tries to clear it up:

“As I mentioned, Governor Patrick has proposed 3 casinos in Massachusetts. How many casinos, if any, would you like to see in Massachusetts?”

Based on the Front Page screaming headline and accompanying story any rational person would have to assume that 53% of the respondants would answer “3 or more casinos.”

Nope.

29% say None, 23% say One and 9% say Two. Only 28% say Three and 5% say Four or more.

Translated to non-globespeak we have 52% of the people who want no more that 1 casino in Massachusets. The Goverenor’s plan calls for 3 casinos and the poll shows that only 33% agree with 3 casinos.

That is way outside the margin of error and a landslide win for people who disagree with the Governors plan.

Is this bias in favor of Governor Moonbat, Bias in favor of anything that might generate more tax revenue, just plain stupidity on the part of the Globe or all 3.

Who the fuck knows.

The issue of casinos is a hot one in Massachusetts. The proposed Indian Tribe Casino in Middleborough seemed to come out of nowhere and has generated heated debate in that town. I checked Dan Kennedy’s blog and sure enough, he has a post up on the Globe story. Dan grew up in Middleborough and is adamantly against the Casino and the proces the town government has used to authorize the plan. I have to sympathise with Dan and the Opponents, it does sound like they are getting a raw deal. If that casino gets built Middleborough will change forever.  

But back to the Globe story. Amazingly even Dan Kennedy misses the glaring misrepresentation of the poll results.

Dan focuses on the questions that highlight NIMBY opposition to casinos in Massachusetts.  Most people don’t want a Casino near their house. Which by itself is also a repudiation of Patricks plan since it’s primary focus is to put a Casino within reach of everyone in Massachusetts.

But that doesn’t fit the Globe’s ”narrative”. 

Man, it’s hard not to laugh at all these dopes who hacked their shiny new Iphones and  got to watch them self destruct in front of their eyes after they applied the first software update from Apple.

The best part is that Apple warned everyone that this would happen if they hacked the phone to avoid AT&T and then applied the software update. But they all applied the update anyway.

That sound you hear is all the AT&T executives laughing and high fiving each other. All other potential Apple business partners take note: Our man Steve Jobs gots some serious street cred. Customers will do what they’re told or he’ll bring his pimp hand down hard on their sorry asses. 

You have to admire the fact that they did this and in typical Apple style the way they did it has a certain elegance. If you hacked your phone and then installed the updates you are definitely fucked. The phone don’t work. Unless you have an emergency that is. There are some reports that you can still dial 911 but nothing else with the shiny Ibrick.

Daddy Steve knows you did a bad thing and reluctantly delivered some “tough love” to you with that software update but he really loves you and wants to make sure you stay safe.

How funny is that?

Of course there is some serious bitching and moaning going on at macworld.com interspersed with sentiment like this:

If Apple warned us not to hit our iPhones with hammers, there would be like 1% of users who would hit them with hammers and then whine about how Apple should have made them hammer-proof. As a long time Mac user I feel justified in saying buh-bye, do not let the shiny glass door of the Apple Store hit you on the ass on the way out. Who needs you? Get a Vista PC and a Windows Mobile, that will give you something to complain about.

Get a Vista PC????? Man, that’s cold.

I picture these uber-geeks fretting over their predicament in their Mom’s basement wondering  how they’re going to keep their dungeons + dragons themed Myspace page updated without their Iphone.

Too bad loser. Cough up the dough and sign up with AT&T. As part owner of the company I want my share of your monthly phone bill.

Get your ass down to an AT&T store NOW!

No, I’m not talking about my posts. I’m talking about some shots being fired from the surprising Boston Magazine.

What makes Boston Magazine surprising to Stocky is that it’s still being published. Back in the day their annual “Worst of Boston” issue was a must read. Before Al Gore invented the interweb, poor schlubs who got crappy service from a waiter or had their dry cleaner lose part of their order had nowhere to vent. To see restaurants and Dry Cleaners raked over the coals in the WOB issue was a rare chance for the “common man” to be heard.

Back in those days our man Howie also contributed to the Mag.

Alas + Alack, those days are long gone. The “Worst of Boston” issue has been “modified” to only include the “Best of Boston”. What it should be called is “Our Favorite Advertising Clients” issue. Not all of the Best of Boston businesses advertise with BMAG of course but without the “Worst of” list BMAG avoids pissing off their most important paying customers.

The advertisers, not you dopes who buy the Mag.

Brian Maloney from savewrko.com calls our attention to a blog post from John Gonzales at BMAG. Who is John Gonzales? Good question. Stocky has never heard of him but something tells me he’s got good fashion sense, his apartment is appointed wonderfully, he loves show tunes and he’s very close to his Mom.

But that’s just a guess.

Johnny takes some shots at Howie and his listeners. As is typical for a “progressive” and  ”tolerant” person like him he sterotypes all Howie’s listeners as redneck, bigoted, homophobic xenophobes. Oh wait. He didn’t say anything about homophobic. Hmmmm, I wonder why he skipped that????

Typical of the elitist moonbat that he is, Johnny is too busy spewing moonbat talking points to get his facts straight.

Howie does not have a “Whiner Line”. It’s the Chump line. A little history lesson is in order here. Howie explained the genesis of the Chump line one day on the air. As Howie tells it he was listening to Howard Stern’s show; Stern was going on the air with a new station the following week and he had that stations GM on the air playing the nasty voice mails he’d gotten after the station announced the switch from music to Stern.

Stern listened to the voice mails pausing to comment on each one. That gave Howie the idea to launch the Chump Line. The Chump Line predated the Whiner Line despite what helium gun sucking Glenn Ordway says.

D + C tried to glom onto this concept with their ill-fated Dump Line. They promo’d it by asking their listeners to “Take their morning Dump.” 

To put it kindly, the quality of the “Dumps” was pretty weak and the Dump Line was quickly relegated to the Dustbin of Talk Radio history.

No doubt the fact that the Dump Line was not played until just before the show ended at 10:00 AM had a lot to do with the poor quality of the calls. Who can listen to the radio at 10:00 AM? Most of us are working so why call in a message that you’ll never get to hear on the air?

Back to Johnny. He’s obviously not bright enough to keep 2 afternoon talk radio shows straight but that doesn’t stop him from calling all of Howie’s listeners rednecks and bigots.

That’s not unusual in the “reality based” moonbat community. Stocky recalls a segment on Emily Rooneys PBS show several years ago where the topic was Rush Limbaugh’s radio show. This was the Friday show called “Beat the Press” where 5 moonbats spend 5-10 minutes pontificating about 3 or 4 “media based” topics of the week.

If I recall correctly it was Emily, Dan Kennedy, Callie Crossley, John Carrol and 1 more whi I can’t remember. They spent about 10 minutes taking turns spouting banalities about Rush and his show. I remember wondering if any of them had ever actually listened to the show. I got my answer when John Carrol ended the segment with a statement along the lines of “and it’s amazing that Limbaugh can hold an audience for so long given the fact that he doesn’t take phone calls during his 3 hour show”. The rest of them all tut-tutted in agreement.

I swear I’m not making that up. Like Johnny they spewed nonsense about a show they’d never even listened to.

Now that I’m done defending Howie I can get back to calculating how much money he’s lost so far. Look for a Post early next week. Hint: Bonus clause!!!!!!!!

   8,653.85

Our man Howie Carr finds himself in an awful position. He’s down to only 1 job which is basically a part time job. 3 columns a week at The Boston Herald.

That’s the type of workload a Massachusetts Judge would envy.

Howie fills us in with some details on what he’s doing with all his newly aquired free time in todays column:

So 10 days ago I got to be a judge at the Ipswich Lions Club ChowderFest.

…

I got an invite yesterday to judge another North Shore chowderfest next month and I’ll be there - with bumper stickers, lots of bumper stickers, direct from Merlin Printing in New Hampshire. See you there.

I wonder how much they pay to be a chowderfest judge? And to think Howie is probably at the peak of his fame. How can Stocky get in contact with Howies Agent? He sounds like a real go-getter.

Of course in Howies circle of advisors his agent is know as “the smart one”. His legal team makes some of those Dolts in the legislature look bright.

As documented before here, Howie finds himself down to 1 job due to the ineptness of his legal team. According to legal analysts with IQ’s above room temperature, all Howie had to do was wait until his contact with WRKO expired on Sept 19th before signing the new deal with WTKK. Simple.

If only Howie were on the air to talk about this. He could tell us for the 78th time, the story about meeting Rupert Murdoch where Rupert complimented him on getting out of the newspaper business. He always adds a comment about needing more than 1 job.

Now our Hero is left only with The Boston Herald as a means to support his Wellesley lifestyle.

Is there any of that Don Imus money left?

Do you think Felon Finneran could float him a loan until “pay day”? Or is Tommy taxes too busy laughing his ass off?

Will he be forced to drive only cars he paid for?

Oh the horror.

Today should have been the end of his first week on the new job. According to many published reports, he should be looking at a pay check of $8,653.85.

Ouch. 

For someone like Howie who is obsessed with money, his own and everyone elses; he must be longing for this paycheck the way a State Worker longs for a Holiday in August.

Stocky will be keeping a running week by week total of the cake Howie is losing.

How long before He + WRKO “settle” this dispute? (Translation, Howie/WTKK forks over some cash)

Not too long is my guess.

END OF DAY UPDATE:

Great action today. Volume and price building in the last 2 hours to a close of $153.17. Right near the top of the price range. 

Hopefully we’ll get some followup and/or consolidation tomorrow.

This is a MONSTER stock!!!!!

End of Update

Stocky is not huge on Chartology, preferring fundamentals like earnings, business model and sector analysis.

But that doesn’t mean a review of the charts isn’t part of the analysis.

In the case of AAPL, the stock/company is a runaway train. It’s going much higher. That’s all there is to it.

However, what we have today(Sept 25, 2007) is a case where the technicians out there may pile into the stock along with the rest of us who are in it for the earnings and/or fundamentals.

AAPL is sitting at a nice “double top” chart pattern of $149-150. With yesterdays upgrade we’ve seen several bounces off the 52 week high. If we could get a push beyond $150 we could see this stock really run.

On a side note, you have to love Jobs’ approach to the hackers. From todays WSJ comes a story of AAPL poetntially disabling Iphones that are hacked in order to use non-Apple business partner carriers. 

Apple itself, though, has recently suggested it might make deliberate attempts to counteract the effects of the unlocking programs. When asked about the topic in a recent interview, Apple Chief Executive Steve Jobs said he wasn’t worried about the impact of such programs. “It’s a cat-and-mouse game,” Mr. Jobs said. “We have a lot of really good cats.”

Go get’em Stevie. Wouldn’t it be sweet to see some techno nerd’s Iphone blow up in his face after he hacked it to use another carrier. No more youporn.com in your pocket for you dude.

From a Scott Van Voorhis front page story in todays Boston Herald about Red Sox owner John Henry doing a Teardown on his recently purchased Brookline mansion.

It was one of the priciest residential sales in Bay State history, just a few million short of the $18.5 million record set by another Brookline mansion in 2001.

Ummm no. That is not correct.

$18.5 mil will get you a nice starter mansion on Nantucket but it’s definitely not a record price.

But what does Nantucket have to do with Massachusetts???

Jules Crittenden reviews Ken Burns’ work Here.

No mention of the Japanese internment camps in any of the reviews listed so it looks like the show description put out by Tribune was a case of political correctness and/or an extension of the “Blame America First” attitude.

My original post lays it out here.

There is so much good to write about with Apple that Stocky almost does not know where to start.

I’ve come full circle on my views of Apple. I used to be like every other Windows bigot and look at Apple as a Macintoy. Used by artsy nerds and pony tailed do-gooders.

My eyes first started to open a few years ago when I walked into an Apple store to look at this new fangled thing called an Ipod. I was immediately put off by the store staff. You know the type. The pony tails, the piercings, the know it all attitude. Even as a total Apple convert I still have to supress the urge to slap the shit out of some of those Apple weenies in the stores. But I digress.

The other thing I noticed on that first trip to the Apple store was the line of people waiting to buy stuff. Man, people are really into this shit, I thought at the time.

Once I got the Ipod home and installed the Itunes software the product really got me. Not the Ipod even though it’s a great product but the Itunes software. To me that was the key. It was really well done, ran flawlessly and was easy to use. Mind you this was Apple software modified to run on a Windows platform. Yet it was head + shoulders above the crap that’s become the norm for Windows applications.  

That’s when I stopped looking down my nose at Apple and seriousy thought about where the company could go. I started paying attention to all the coverage of the company and have gotten to the point where when I hear Becky Quick on CNBC talk about the Friday “Jobs” report I wonder if she’s talking about Steve.

I eventually built a position in AAPL at a level higher than it should have been. Especially given that maddening pullback on huge volume to $49 a while back. If only I had the balls to pull the trigger on more shares at anywhere near that level. Oh well. It’s still the best stock in my portfolio and I have no intentions of selling anytime soon.

In fact, even at these levels($144) I think AAPL is still a screaming BUY. For me, AAPL still has tremendous untapped upside potential. I think ultimately, the “end” of the APPL story will be how they moved into the Enterprise and really delivered a well deserved beatdown to Microsoft.

A very good and under read publication is ComputerWorld. Lately they have been doing more and more coverage of AAPL. These 2 stories on APPL + the Enterprise really say a lot.

Story 1 talks about a company that is going full speed ahead with dumping Windows and going to the Macs. Note the sidebar on the Iphone. They are buying 50 Iphones to hand out to their sales people. 

July 16, 2007 (Computerworld) — It’s little things like the small silver Apple logo on CIO Dale Frantz’s crisp white shirt that signal the sea change in the works at Auto Warehousing Co.Over the next 60 days, AWC will begin systematically pulling the plug on all Windows-based PCs in its cavernous auto processing shop and power up Macs to execute virtually all of its revenue-generating operations. The move comes on the heels of a quiet wholesale replacement of Windows-based servers for data storage and Web operations, which are now running on Apple Inc.’s Xserve RAID machines.

All good stuff there.

With the ability to run Windows if you have to why not get a Mac? Stocky’s next PC/Laptop purchase will be a Mac. If a former windows bigot like me is making the switch many many others will too.

Story 2 Details Apples NON interest in cracking the enterprise market. Huh? Why not? This is the “untapped potential” part of the story. I believe that AAPL just has not gotten around to making a push in this market yet. Remember that they had to pull resorces from the Leapord O/S effort to support the Iphone rollout. The Leapord release has been delayed until October demonstrating that as good as Apple execution has been up till now, there are limits to what they can do.

I think that as the Iphone rolls out around the world and Leapord gets released, some time after that will be the time AAPL trains it’s guns on the enterprise. With only 5% of the PC market now, even small increases in market share will have massive impacts on the Top + Bottom lines of AAPL.

Even without the Enterprise push AAPL has started to kick ass in the Mac sales department. This is highlighted in a story from thestreet.com

People familiar with the company say Apple is selling computers at a blockbuster pace. The Cupertino, Calif., company is expected to sell 2.35 million iMacs and MacBooks this quarter, TheStreet.com has learned.

A sales number that high would beat analysts’ estimates by nearly 400,000 units. Pegging the average Mac sales price at a conservative $1,500, a beat of that magnitude stands to boost Apple’s top line by about $600 million. Analysts expect the company to post fiscal first-quarter revenue of $5.94 billion.

To say nothing of a rumored new product.

Looking ahead, people inside the company and those close to Apple’s plans say there will be a big announcement regarding a so-called subnotebook Mac. The ultra-thin device will have a 10-inch to 12-inch screen; sleek, rounded edges; and weigh less than 2 pounds.

The subnotebook’s introduction is planned for next quarter, and the product is expected to be available for the holiday sales season. In preparation for a big year-end sales push, Apple has told some employees to cancel vacation plans “between Thanksgiving and Christmas,” says one source familiar with the memo.

This could also be the long awaited (by Stocky anyway) Flash Hard drive laptop. Toss in some touch screen technology from the Iphone and you coul have another killer product.

With a revamped Ipod line, Iphones selling like crazy

September 20, 2007 (Reuters) — Apple Inc. has prepared plans to nearly double its iPhone production in the fourth quarter, financial news Web site TheStreet.com reported, citing people familiar with the company.

And a new O/S release in Oct spurring Mac sales, AAPL will have a MONSTER holiday quarter.

There are already rumblings about Apple being the new Microsoft and from a stock standpoint that is music to Stocky’s ears. However, I think as long as Jobs is running Apple it will never become anything close to the hated behemoth that is Microsoft.

I can say that based on Jobs’ own words. He was asked recently about what he planned to do with the massive amount of cash AAPL has on it’s balance sheet. The questioner wondered why AAPL didn’t put the cash to work creating new products.

Jobs answer was “Creating new products is more than just writing a check. If that’s all it took, Microsoft would have good products”.

Classic. 

Yesterdays Boston Globe had a very good article by Brian Ballou on Crime in the notorious Franklin Hill Housing Project in Dorchester.

Lots of Bad stuff going on there. Ballou does some nice reporting detailing some of the problems:

After a 48-year-old man was fatally shot Monday night inside a hallway, some residents expressed frustration yesterday over the violence.

“They should just tear this whole place down,” said McKinley Sykes, 60, a longtime tenant in the complex in Dorchester. “I told the management before that, anything short of that won’t solve the problem.”

The body of the victim, identified by sources close to the investigation as Kelvin Alexander of Providence, was found not far from the spot where two other men, Jeffrey Jones, 41, and Jarrid Campbell, 27, were slain July 13 as they sat in a parked car.

…

Many tenants clamored for more police foot patrols, especially in areas of the development neighbors know as trouble spots.

“I’m very cautious, because this place just draws the worst kind of people,” said Frederick Bridgewater, 65, who lives in the building. He said he recently refused to open his door after someone professing to be a neighbor knocked and told him his car lights were on. “I didn’t come out, because there was another resident who was busted on the head and robbed some days before,” Bridgewater said.

Jerome Gary, 61, said that he has lived in the development for 14 years and that “it’s never been this bad.” Gary said that he and his grandson “go inside when it gets dark, and we don’t come out.”

…

The Rev. William Dickerson, pastor of the nearby Greater Love Tabernacle, said he grew up in the Franklin Hill area. He also said he presided over the funerals of the two men killed in July.

“An increased police presence will calm things down there,” Dickerson said. “We saw a decrease in violence when police began patrolling several hot spots in the city, and that’s commendable, but we also have to change a whole culture that has become violent.”

That place sounds like a disaster. Maybe an article like this will spur the Boston Police and/or the Mayor to do something to help.

In a case like this Stocky parises the Globe for shedding light on a horrible situation without falling into the intellectualy lazy trap of blaming Guns for the problems.

Speaking of intellectualy lazy, that brings me to Steve Bailey. Not a word of outrage from Mr. Bailey on this. You’d think a good liberal like him would be all over this story. Crying out for justice for the poor residents of Franklin Hill.

You would be wrong.

While Mr. Bailey did have a column in yesterdays paper he chose to address the issue of Casinos in Massachusetts. Interestingly enough, the Column was titled “Collateral Damage”. Gambling is bad, economic impact is overstated, blah, blah, blah. You’ve heard it all before.

One wonders if one of these proposed casinos might be near one of Bailey’s vacation homes.

Maybe he should conduct a “sting” operation similar to the one he executed at the NH Gun Show. He could head to one of the Connecticut Casinos and have the Globe buy a bucket of quarters for a chain smoking Senior Citizen living off Social Security.

Said Senior Citizen blows the liberal wad with nothing to show for it and Stevie gets to pontificate about how evil Casinos are.

Stevie could do that if he has time out from defending himself from felony charges, that is.

I have a dream. One day Howie Carr will be judged based on the content of his character and not the quality of his legal representation.

Howie, what the Fuck?

Will Tom Finneran be taking any sick leave to recover from injuries sustained from days of laughing hysterically? Maybe you can fill in for him while he’s out. That would give you the “morning drive” slot you want at least until Tommy Taxes stops laughing at you.

For a guy like Howie Carr who has spent his entire career ridiculing the missteps and misfortunes of others to find himself in this position is just too much. To paraphrase Howie, paraphrasing someone else, “It would take a heart of stone not to laugh”.

Stocky is a big Howie fan but even I can’t help but laugh.

Despite what Howie’s flack would have you believe, he got his ass kicked in court yesterday. From the judges written decisions it appears that Howies legal team was not even competent enough to get the proper questions before the court. Assuming that someday they succeed in getting the judge to look at the proper issue who thinks they’re competent enough to argue effectively? Not me.

Geeze, what Dopes.

The judges decision is desribed best in todays Boston Herald.

The whole sordid mess has been chronicled at savewrko.com.

The aftermath of the court decison was advanced best by WBZ TV’s Lisa Hughes in a 21 minute video interview  of Howie posted on their web site.

In the interview Howie compares his $700K per year job at WRKO as Slavery. When pressed on that by Hughes he backs off but only a little.

Slavery??? Give me a fucking break. How many times did Howie rightfully ridicule the Gay lobby when they compared Gay marriage to the civil rights fights of the 60’s? Answer: A lot.

To hear Howie whine about slavery is pretty tough to take.

Other than the slavery thing it’s a very good interview. Hughes does a nice job. Who knew she wasn’t just another news reader Bimbo?

It remains to be seen if Howie will pull a D+C and just take the money or if he’ll drag this fight out to the end.

There has been plenty of discusion of the advertisers disdain for DVR’s/Tivo. There have been a few attempts to “work with” the DVR to make sure viewers actually watch the commercial instead of fast forwarding. One notable scheme was the freeze frame “free KFC sandwich” spot.

At least I think it was KFC that did that.

Anyways, last night I saw another attempt on NBC’s The Biggest Loser.

At the beginning of each commercial break they quickly cut to a multiple choice fitness/diet based question. A sample question was:

How many Americans admit to eating fast food as a family meal at least once per week?

Kind of a head scratcher question. The announcer noted that the answer would appear “later”. I quickly tapped the Tivo 30 second skip button a few times to get to the beginning of the new segment only to NOT see the answer.

Hmmmm. So I hit the rewind button and watched a commercial or 2 in reverse before I saw a screen with the question and answer (51%) highlighted.

They inserted the answer into the middle of the block of commercials. Interesting. No doubt an attempt to get viewers (both DVR + Non-DVR) to pay attention through the commercial break.

So from then on I fast forwarded “slowly” through the commercials looking carefully for the answer screen instead of blindly skipping forward.

Not a guarantee that I would actually watch a commercial but I definitely looked at what was going by and may have stopped if it looked interesting, ie a hot babe.

If I was an Ad person I’d be extremely intersted in Tivo’s StopWatch stats from that show.

Did it help commercial viewership??? Pay Tivo for the StopWatch service and find out.

That’s the only way to tell and that’s why Tivo is developing a gold mine with this data/Service.

This award goes to some “expert” named Dan Rayburn. His post today on how Tivo is so far inferior to the Verizon DVR is filled with “inaccuracies”. It’s also on seeking alpha.

This is not suprising if you follow Tivo. Lots of morons spew nonsense when pontificating about Tivo. What is surprising is that this Dope actually owns a Tivo. Yet he still doesn’t have a friggin clue.

Bear in mind that this dolt has not even used the Verizon DVR yet. He’s just read about the features. But he already loves it.

I can’t come up with one strength TiVo has over the Verizon TV DVR

What a Douche. What are the “strengths” that the Verizon DVR has over Tivo??

The Verizon DVR can record in HD, can record two shows at once, can playback recorded shows in multiple rooms at once with only one DVR and can record up to 85 hours of standard definition.

With the exception of playback in multiple rooms with only 1 DVR Tivo CAN do all that. There’s also Amazon Unbox, Tivocasts, Podcasts, Yahoo Weather + Traffic (don’t laugh, the weather feature is very usefull) internet radio stations and a promised implementation of music via Rhapsody.

Good luck with that Verizon DVR. You are too stupid to be a Tivo Customer.

You’re probably wondering what Stocky does with his time when the markets are closed and CNBC is devoid of smoking hot babes like Becky, Trish, Erin, Melissa, Michelle, Mary, etc. etc. etc.

Yesterday, Sunday (sept 17 2007) Stocky found himself in the Peoples Republic of Cambridge. I stumbled across a film crew. Not much filming was going on and only about 20 people were watching but I stopped anyway to ask what was going on.

It was a music video shoot for the band Boys like Girls. Never heard of them? Then you must not be a teenage girl. You can listen to and watch the videos from 2 of their songs here.

Apparently they won Spin magazines new artist of the year award in 2006. They should have a great career. At least until they hit puberty and their voices change.

Nothing blog worthy about all that. What I did find funny was the reason shooting was halted. This part of the video was to be shot with the singer driving a cherry 60’s era Dodge Charger that they had rented for the day. A metallic blue “muscle car” from the late 60’s, no doubt chosen to toughen up the bands image.

Only one problem with that plan. The singer doesn’t know how to drive a standard shift.

You can’t make this shit up.

So, while a severely bored looking Mass State Trooper sat in his car with the small one way side street blocked off, the “braintrust” debated how to make the shoot work with a ”Rock Star” that didn’t know how to drive the car they rented for the day.

Being the important person that Stocky is, he couldn’t hang around long enough to see how they worked this out. At last check, they were debating having the film truck tow the car while “Rock Star Boy” pretended to drive.

Stocky will be checking back with the bands web site to see how this video turned out.

OK, another Stock Pick.

Tivo has to be one of the worst acting and most frustrating Stocks to own anywhere. It’s known to swing up wildy for no reason (other than MM manipulation) and float downward slowly (or not so slowly) after nearly every big up day.

A nice stock to play the swings you might say. Yes, that’s true but Stocky believes that Tivo’s swinging days are coming to an end.

Tivo has several significant upward catalysts ready to hit. They are:

• Comcast Rollout (Friggin finally)
• Comcast likely to make Tivo their standard DVR (if this happens look out shorts)
• Lower priced HD Tivo doing well (sales appear to be better than expected)
• Echostar case coming to an end (or at least the latest end until Dish appeals to the supreme court)
• DTV Relationship improving (look for a new DTV HD Tivo after Liberty deal closes)
• Increasing revenue from StopWatch second by second commercial ratings
• Mexico rollout
• Cox Cable rollout next year
• Huge (20%+) short position
• TivotoGo and Multi-room viewing for S3 + HD owners soon
• Tivo Branded Plugin Hard Drives to expand storage capacity by end of year
• Amazon Unbox Downloads gaining popularity
• Australia Distribution Deal

The huge number of shorts significantly reduces the downside risk. The only way those shorts make their money is by buying back the stock. So in the event of a disaster (like losing the Dish appeal) the plunge in stock price would be muted as the shorts create buying pressure on their way to cash out. It sounds like spin but it’s true. You just have to be willing to get out of the stock at the first notice of a disaster.

On the flip side, good news, like the more likely scenario of winning the Dish case is a delicious short squeeze.

While Stocky would still like Tivo at $6 without a Dish win; short term would be ugly. A Dish win also plays into more deals with others who don’t want to get sued. It’s not inconceivable to imagine that Tivo could be paid a dollar per month for every DVR in use in North America. At least every non-crappy DVR.

That’s a 2 - 3 year view though and the revenue gains from StopWatch is also relatively long term.

The Comcast relationship is also key to Tivo’s fortunes. Comcast recently agreed to fund development of the Tivo/Comcast software to run on their Scientific Atlanta set top boxes. That will give Comcast the ability to offer the Tivo DVR to all of their customers. Stocky will predict that Comcast will dump their crappy DVR and make Tivo their standard DVR. That may not happen for a while but it will.

As soon as the DTV/Liberty deal closes (by the end of this year) DTV wil have no reason to continue with Ruper Murdochs crappy NDS DVR. In fact, Tivo CEO Tom Rogers has already commented on the “Improved relations” between Tivo + DTV and Tivo announced that they will be providing updates to the millions of Tivo DTV boxes still in use. Why do that unless you plan to do a longer term deal with DTV?

In addition to Comcast + DTV, in the shorter term you have Amazon Unbox going gangbusters with the ability to order downloads from your couch and the long awaited implementation of TivotoGo and MRV for S3 + HD owners. There are thousands of Tivo Geeks that have been waiting for these features before plunking down the money for an additional Tivo. Tivo HD has been showing very strong in the Amazon top electronic products sold list since it was launched and it should do even better for the holiday season. Who is going to spend 2-3 grand on a new HD TV and not want to drop a mere $300 for a Tivo?

Another massive oppurtunity to sell into the existing Tivo customer base is the addition of a Tivo Branded external hard drive to increase storage capacity. The Tivo Uber-Geeks have been adding drives on their own for months and as usual Tivo has stumbled in the execution of this but in the end nearly every S3 + HD Tivo owner will purchase more storage via the Tivo drive. Tivo BETTER get some great margins out of this product.

So, let’s review. By the end of next year Tivo could have locked up DVR’s for DTV, Comcast + Cox. The 2 biggest cable providers and 1 of the 2 Sat providers. The other Sat provider, Dish is worthy of a future post of it’s own.

Add the stand alone Tivo customers (analog + HD) and you have a bunch of subscribers.

The better to use when selling StopWatch services.

It’s a good business plan finally coming together in spite of Tivo management. As I said at the beginning of this post, Tivo has been a frustrating stock to own.

One wonders why a company with the most and best data in history on the second by second viewing habits of highly desirable (affluent) Americans at their fingertips cannot execute a marketing campaign to save their life.

Christ Almighty what dopes.

However, in the end, Stocky believes the subscriber numbers will overcome all.

$20 is not out of the question.

After being bombarded with commercials for the new Ken Burns PBS “The War” series, Stocky clicked on the Tivo remote a few times and looked up the show in order to setup a season pass.

Yes it’s PBS and Yes some of Burns’ work can be tedious and overwrought but World War II truly was an amazing time. A fight for civilization that even the leftists of the day (well, maybe not Joe Kennedy) and today can’t deny. As they are for todays fight for civilization.

Anyways, it was with high hopes that Stocky found the first episode of The War, made sure to select the HD channel version and setup the season pass. Good stuff or so I hoped.

Before clicking back to Squawk Box on CNBC (Becky was looking particularly fine that morning) I read the program description for the first 2 1/2 hour episode. Here it is:

The War

“A Necessary War”  The Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor thrusts the United States into World War II; thousands of Japanese-Americans are forced into inland internment camps.

You gotta be fucking kidding me.

Internment camps get the same billing as the attack on Pearl Harbor???????????? Those PBS leftist assholes!!!! Leave it to them to excentuate a perceived blackmark in Amerca’s WW II history. Of course Michelle Malkin wrote a book arguing that the camps were justified but Stocky will go out on a limb and predict that she was not a source for this PBS series.

When putting together this post I found that maybe it’s not the leftists at PBS who are to blame here. While looking for a link to the program guide I found that the TV Guide listing is significantly different than the one provided to Tivo (and many other customers) via Tribune Media. Here is the TV Guide listing:

Episode Detail: A Necessary War (December 1941-December 1942) - The War

Debut: Ken Burns’ seven-part series tells the story of World War II through the experiences of ordinary people from four American towns. First up: a summary of the war and its cost (some 50 million lives), and reasons for the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor. It also chronicles the first year of U.S. involvement, focusing on, among others, Glenn Frazier, from Mobile, Ala., who survived the Bataan Death March; and Sid Phillips, who fought the Japanese on Guadalcanal.

Not a word about the internment camps in that description. That sounds reasonable. I bet the internment camps get too much air time along with black units who fought in the war. Not that they shouldn’t be mentioned but my guess is their importance will be exaggerated in relation to the grand scheme of the War. But we’ve all come to expect that. To even point this out is to invite the racist card to be played.

Oh well.

But back to Tribune Media. They are the ones who provide the guide data to Tivo and many other customers. Who is Tribune Media? They are owned by Tribune Broadcasting. Tribune Broadcasting owns:

 Baltimore Sun  · Chicago Tribune · Hartford Courant  · Los Angeles Times  · Newsday  · South Florida Sun-Sentinel  · Orlando Sentinel  · The Morning Call  · Daily Press  · The Advocate 

Among others. No liberal slants there.

Is this all a stretch??? Maybe. But it’s the little things like this show description that never get called out for what they are and really piss Stocky off.  

Ellen Goodman makes an appearance today. She thinks it’s just swell that gay men meet and suck each other off in public restrooms. Who are these homophobe bigoted jerks who would dare think that is unacceptable behavior.

Stocky would like Ellen to send her grandson into a public restroom in a trainstation, bus station or airport and cool her heels waiting for the little tyke to come out. I bet if she did this a few times the little homophobic bigot would have some “interesting” stories to tell granny.

From Granny’s column: 

I don’t want to send my grandson into a public restroom used for assignations.

Assignations?????? Now there’s a euphamism for you. What is the definition of Assignation? Here it is from an online dictionary:

A “secret rendezvous”. How friggin quaint. This is how Granny thinks of 2 gay guys sucking each others dicks in a public place without even exchanging names. I guess she has to elevate the behavior to that level if she’s to present her “narrative” of gays as victims. Back to her column:

Sex stings to catch gays have been around for more than a century. Sodomy itself was illegal in Minnesota until 2001. It was a “crime against nature” in Idaho, punishable by five years to life in prison. Then in 2003, the Supreme Court finally overturned all the laws against sodomy.

…

Yet the stings go on. Craig was only one of 40 arrested since May in Minneapolis. There were 45 arrested in the Atlanta airport this year. How many elsewhere? There must be saner ways to keep a restroom from becoming a meeting ground, better than using a dubious law that shames men into pleading guilty for the same reason Craig did: humiliation and the fear of exposure. “I don’t call media,” said the policeman. But exposure often follows. So too, a lifetime of registering as a sex offender.

Oh boo hoo. If this type of stuff was going on in womens restrooms do you think Ellen would be complaining about the “stings”? These skeevie guys are swapping semen but not names in the stall next to her grandson but Ellen is more concerned with the gays “civil rights”.

And “there must be saner ways to keep a restroom from becoming a meeting ground” is just so precious. Do tell, Granny. Don’t keep us all in suspense. Come up with a “saner” way to handle this. If you can’t then shut the fuck up and stop complaining about the police doing their jobs.

I can picture her outside a mens room waiting for her grandson, cooling her heels while twiddling her ever so tasetfull pearl necklace. Meanwhile, inside the mens room there could be several “assignations” going on within reach of her grandson. Would it take her grandson getting his own “pearl necklace” for granny to climb down from her politically correct high horse? Does she even give a shit about the men (straight + gay) who are subjected to this shit when all they’re trying to do is take care of business and be on their way? To say nothing of her grandson. 

Nice grandmother she is.

I wonder if she lets him go unattended into the mens rooms on Morrisey Boulevard?

If this Boston Globe piece wasn’t so pathetic Stocky could almost laugh. Almost. Well maybe not almost. The piece does feature the terminally unfunny Jimmy Tingle. But I digress.

Note the deferential treatment Scott Ritter gets:

 In his new book, “Waging Peace: The Art of War for the Antiwar Movement,” former UN weapons inspector Scott Ritter discusses John Boyd’s theories of aerial warfare, compares the ideas of Prussian military thinker Carl von Clausewitz to those Sun Tzu proposed 2,500 years ago …

Why from that lead and the resulting story you would have no idea that Ritter is a sex offender.  It seems that the esteemed Mr. Ritter likes to have underage girls watch him jerk off. Isn’t that swell. Not that the Globe would mention that. Can we imagine what the treatment would be for a Bush supporter under the same circumstances?

Of course as long as you’re on the right side of the political debate, the Globe will work with you on resurrecting your career. No matter what the offense. Take Paula Pondstone, please. Here the Globe omits the sexual assault aspect of Paula’s “debacle” and simply states that she “Fell out of favor”. 

Poundstone fell out of favor in 2001 when she pleaded guilty to felony endangerment and misdemeanor child abuse after driving while intoxicated with her children in the car. She was sentenced to five years’ probation and six months of drug treatment, which included attending AA meetings. She emerged with a tarnished image, but her sense of humor still intact.

She was initially charged with 3 counts of committing a lewd act on a child under 14 and she lost custody of 2 children who were in her home via Foster Care. The felony lewd act charge was dropped when she plead out on a lesser charge.

Do we have to ask how the globe would play this if she weren’t a moonbat Lesbian?

if you’re an “economist” at a place like UW-Madison it probably doesn’t take long for you to realize it’s in your career best interest to forget most of what you learned about economics and start spouting the Socialist party line.

Here we have Morris Davis dancing to the moonbats tune. Should we crack down on all the phoney baloney mortgages that have been given out in the last few years?? Not according to Morris:

But before placing all the blame on subprime lenders, the UW’s Davis says it’s important to realize that extending credit to poor people is central in helping everyone realize the American dream of home ownership. He says fair housing advocates should be pressuring federally-backed lenders Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to make loans to those with lousy credit.

“There is nothing wrong with (subprime) loans as long as home values increase,” Davis says. “The problem comes when values are falling like they are now.”

Keep handing out the money. Who cares if they have lousy credit and can’t pay it back. Have the “government” foot the bill.

Besides, home values always go up. Right??????????

Any teachers union official reading that headline would be on their way into full cardiac arrest before reading further. For you non-union types, you know there’s more to the story.

 A globe editorial no less on school funding has this:

… with the goal of creating parent-consumers who will demand rich educational choices for their children. These families will also get scholarship money to spend on such programs. Rolnick argues that these choosy mothers with money will stimulate the marketplace to create more high-quality preschool programs.

Ah ha!! There’s the rub. It’s only PRESCHOOL the Globe is interested in. Once we get the little tykes through high quality preschool programs it’s on to the soft bigotry of low expectations in the union controlled Public Schools.

So it’s a great idea for parents to be given money to spend on Preschool programs which will have the effect of improving preschool programs for everyone but any Voucher programs after preschool are considered the work of the anti-christ????!!!!!

How do those fucking bow tied bum kissers on Morrisey Boulevard sleep at night???

Is there a bigger blowhard than Geraldo? Some “highlights” of a Globe story about Geraldo the Sailorman.

“Look, I don’t care what people say about me. I’ve had a wonderful career,” he says. “I’ve been famous for 40 years.”

Jeffrey Dammer is famous too Gerry. That doesn’t mean he had a wonderful career and the same goes for you, douch.

On his autobiography:

“It started as a good yarn about a guy who worked his way up to become the first million-dollar reporter,” says Rivera. “I should never have written the other stuff. It was self-aggrandizing in a reckless, Romeo kind of way.”

Self-aggrandizing?!?!????? Geraldo??????? Stop the presses. Geeze what a douch.

Between 1997 and 2000, Rivera sailed Voyager around the world, and the tales he tells about the experience are predictably swashbuckling. “I’ve survived a hurricane and been chased by Somalian pirates,” he says. “Sailing is laden with so much crap - the tasseled loafers, the swells. I’m not into any of that.”

Where to begin? I guess with the fact that our swashbuckling hero Geraldo did NOT sail around the world. His boat did, but he didn’t. We know this because the trip was chronicled by and broadcast on the Travel Channel. Voyager had “permanent” crew that did all the heavy lifting. Geraldo flew back + forth from New York, joining the crew for the “fun” legs of the voyage. Crossing the equator, interesting ports, etc. In no way could he legitimately claim to have “sailed around the world”. It’s just self aggrandizing bullshit spun by a media whore/swell.  

Of course, Marion isn’t exactly gritty. The exclusive Kittansett Club is barely a nine iron from his circular driveway, and Rivera’s well-heeled neighbors include Goldman Sachs partner Sidney Weinberg, Staples founder Tom Stemberg, and attorney Linda Kenney-Baden and her husband, forensic pathologist Michael Baden.

Yes, Marion, Mass on Buzzrds Bay is quite a place. Stocky was once told a story of a tennis match played at Geraldo’s club. It was the finals of some tournament and many people were in the stands watching. As the match was going on, our swash buckling hero Geraldo decided that he needed to get workout in. So he took off his shirt and began jogging in circles around the tennis court.

A more common example of Gerry pissing off the members would be the landing of his helicopter near the club. 

Swell guy that Geraldo.

Of course Stocky would be remiss if he didn’t address the most aggregious part of the story. The Michelle Malkin smackdown or I guess Spitdown would be more accurate.

“Michelle Malkin is the most vile, hateful commentator I’ve ever met in my life,” he says. “She actually believes that neighbors should start snitching out neighbors, and we should be deporting people.

“It’s good she’s in D.C. and I’m in New York,” Rivera sneers. “I’d spit on her if I saw her.”

 Well, at least Geraldo is getting wiser in his old age. No more picking on Men. That never worked out too well for Gerry. Frank Stallone delivered a nice Geraldo Ass-kicking on the Howard Stern show and who can forget the skinhead who broke Geraldo’s nose on his show.

Those are just the beatdowns Gerry’s gotten while the cameras were rolling. I hope they are rolling the next time Michelle bumps into Gerry.

I bet Mr. Tough Guy ends up a loser again. 

OK, Stocky finally gets to a stock pick or 2.

The theme of our times is (or shortly will be) Peak Oil. We are not running out of oil but we are running out of cheap oil. Mainly due to increasing demand. If the world consumtion were to stay at 86 million barrells per day then we’d be fine for the next half century. However, barring a worldwide recession, demand will continue to increase. That means squeezing every last barrell out of mature fields and extracting “unconventional” and hard to reach oil.

FSESX is a sector fund that specializes in Oil Services companies. It’s true that Fidelity uses these sector funds as a training ground for new fund managers but you can’t argue with the success of this fund. (And some of their other sector funds)

Take a look at the performance of the top 10 holdings as of Sept 1, 2007

Is there still room to grow? Oh yes, these companies are booked solid for the next several years and while they do fluctuate based on the cost of crude, their earnings will continue to rock as long as Oil stays above $45-$50. And even then, their backlogs will carry them for many quarters.

The reality is that Oil is never going that low again for any significant period of time and eventually the street will have to recognize that these energy services companies are no longer a cyclical play. Their P/E’s should be on a par with other high quality growth stocks instead of the 17 or so this fund sits at now. (Actually SLB’s P/E is much higher than the rest which brings up the funds average. Bringing the other companies just up to SLB’s P/E will make for some huge gains.)

Much more room to run.